Will There Be Enough Water in the Next Century?

The blog posted on blogcatalog by Jo Gabriel Tulio asks a startling question: “Will There Be Enough Water in the Next Century?” (Tulio, 2009) According to Tulio, the world is heading into a decline of available fresh water, worse than seen in recent years. This reduction of fresh water could have varied, but undoubtedly devastating effects on the human population. He claims, “The world is facing the prospect of water shortages caused by population growth, uneven supplies of water, pollution, and other factors.” (Tulio, 2009) Also, with the assumption that there will be war, Tulio states, “The wars of the next century will be over water not oil.” (Tulio, 2009) However, there is some hope offered in the last paragraph, a saving grace for humanity, because we “have not yet crossed the line of no return.” (Tulio, 2009) This is a statement to initiate action, to start conserving our fresh water before it is too late. Overall, Tulio makes a very general claim, with very little supporting evidence. He believes that fresh water is becoming scarce, will be the source of contention between countries, but is still salvageable.

For all three points, contradiction exists in Tulio’s evidence. Firstly, we must accept that pollution and climate change are causing a shortage of fresh water. Pollution is mainly described as the leaching of nitrates and fertilizers into the water, causing blooms of algae that ruin water quality. Although this process is described, no reports of it are mentioned or studies made that prove the toxic effects of these algae blooms. Climate change is the other factor said to be affecting water quality, yet contradiction is woven in to the argument with the statement, “Scientists disagree over the extent to which global warming might alter the Earth’s climate…but most experts agree that elevated global temperatures could change the world’s rainfall patterns.” (Tulio, 2009) It is unclear what experts believe, but seemingly if weather patterns do change, the overall quantity of fresh water won’t, only the location.

Both factors leading to a shortage of water come back to development. Unfortunately, Tulio has stumbled into a circular argument. Pollution is produced through farming: animal waste and the use of fertilizers and pesticides is needed to produce more food on less land. Climate change is the result of global warming: the increase of greenhouse gasses from the burning of fossil fuels. Yet if unindustrialized countries are going to improve their standard of living, they have every right that industrialized countries did to pollute and burn fossil fuels in the process. The price of industrialism has always been the environment, including fresh water.

The second part to this claim is that wars between countries will begin due to the limits of fresh water resources. This one statement has a large impact, but it is not supported in anyway throughout the rest of the article. Yes, clean water is limited and impossible to find in many areas, and perhaps it will become worse, but we can not predict how society will respond.

Lastly, the allowance of hope is given. Tulio states that measures must be taken to improve water quality, and that it is not too late. Such comforting statements are always nice to hear, but it leaves the reader thinking, “Great, there is something that can be done.” Not, “Now I know what I can do.” One option for the production of more fresh water is desalination, but the energy expenditure to evaporate all of our water would be huge, increasing fossil fuel use, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and ultimately fresh water depletion. If this technology is “economical for desalinating brackish well water” (Tulio, 2009) then our problem seems to be solved.

Tulio’s claims concerning fresh water are as circular as the water cycle. They depend on various factors and the cause and effects are intricately, but not always directly related. Water is a finite resource and is certainly worth conserving, but it can be purified. Evidence of a worsening water shortage has not been given

- Amy Adair 0660106

References
Tulio, Jo Gabriel. (2009) Will There Be Enough Water in the Next Century? blogcatalog, 8 July 2009. http://www.blogcatalog.com/search/frame.php?term=freshwater+resources&id=98f14dd058e7cc6a2651a4e93945b4. Accessed 25 September 2009.