Zebra mussels are a non-native invasive species that have affected countless fresh water systems in North America. Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), originally native to lakes in southeast Russia, have had massive economical and ecological effects in North America due to the fact that they successfully compete for habitat, so “…colonies of zebra mussels may accumulate and clog water-intake pipes and screens of drinking water facilities, industrial facilities, power generating plants…”(Gulf of Maine Aquarium, 2005).
In a 2004 study entitled "The Potential Distribution of Zebra Mussels in the United States", John M. Drake (postdoctoral fellow at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis) and Jonathan M. Bossenbroek (associate in the Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame) attempt to determine “the potential distribution of zebra mussels in the United States by applying a machine-learning algorithm for nonparametric prediction of species distributions”(Boosenbroek, Drake, 2004). In simpler words, the study’s focus was to create a mathematical model in order to predict the probable location of zebra mussel accumulations in the United States. Locations predicted by the model where zebra mussels would flourish could then prepare for suitable treatments, while areas not likely to be affected could avoid spending the time and resources for unnecessary contingency plans.
In order to construct the mathematical sequence, several variables needed to be estimated over the various regions of the United States. The environmental factors included; average annual temperature, frost frequency, annual precipitation, solar radiation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. The geological factors included; bedrock geology, elevation, flow accumulation, slope, and surface geology. The factors were collected from all over the United States in order to determine possible direct and indirect effects on zebra mussel habitat.
The conclusions of the study predicted that some large areas would likely not become infested with zebra mussels. “…our results suggest that much of the American West will be uninhabitable for zebra mussels” (Boosenbroek, Drake, 2004).
Areas predicted to be impacted by zebra mussels according to this model were summarized as follows: “using this method…high [risk] throughout the Midwest…[the] three western river systems…the Southeast…and along the eastern seaboard” (Boosenbroek, Drake, 2004). Considering the degree of industrial development in these areas, the amount of planning and the search for methods to control the zebra mussels while not causing considerable damage to the rest of the ecosystem will be extensive.
References:
Drake, John .M, Boosenbroek, Jonathon .M, (2004) The Potential Distribution of Zebra Mussels in the United States:
BioScience 54(10):931-941. 2004 doi: 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0931:TPDOZM]2.0.CO;2
Accessed: October 13th 2009
“Zebra Mussels”, Gulf of Maine Aquarium (2005)
http://www.gma.org/surfing/human/zebra.html
Accessed: October 13th 2009
Emily Hartwig
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Zebra mussels are a huge problem back home in Lake Winnipeg. Shortly after their introduction to the lake they completely took over and the lake is now infested with them. I think it's interesting that they can use algorithms to predict the spread of zebra mussels. This idea is similar to the article I did, except that they used algorithms to predict the amount of freshwater that would be available for consumption. In the article I looked at they found this method to be an excellent way of making precise predictions. Was it as precise for zebra mussel distribution and how long in advance could they make these predictions?
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